How T-Mobile Can Gain Ground -OR- My Predictions for the Google Android Launch

I don't like to make a lot of predictions (I like my data to be accurate!). But I'm so excited about the upcoming launch of the first Google Android powered phone by T-Mobile that I want to get some of my thoughts down in black and white.

For those of you that might not have heard yet (where have you been hiding??) T-Mobile is about to be the first cellular carrier to release a phone based on the new, open source Android operating system, pioneered primarily by Google. This new "mobile operating system" is expected to be an industry changing development. The handset hardware is being made by HTC and is called either the Dream or the G1. T-Mobile has called a press conference for Sept. 23rd to release the specifics, and everyone and their dog is speculating about what those specifics will be. And I am no different.

But I think I see some gaps in the general conjecture, some possibilities that are being missed. So here's a few strategies that I hope T-Mobile will use in the coming weeks to make the most of their big announcement and start to move up from being the 4th place US wireless provider:

Make the Dream a "Hotspot" enabled phone.
T-Mobile took a big risk and showed some real boldness when they announced their new "Hotspot" enabled phones a few years ago. Basically this allows Wi-fi capable handsets to make and receive calls over an available Wi-fi network with out using up a person's minutes. T-mobile charges a flat rate (about $10/month) on top of a regular plan and allows the user to make unlimited calls over Wi-fi.

This idea terrifies the other three big carriers because it means that people will pay for less "overage" minutes and will purchase smaller calling plan packages. But it's tremendously good for the customer for these same exact reasons.

With this service already in place, and the HTC Dream being a Wi-Fi enabled phone, it's pretty much a no-brainer that T-Mobile will do this. But strangely I haven't heard anyone out on the net getting excited about this probability. What if you could pay for a minimal plan but have unlimited calls on your iPhone? If AT&T announced that it would be a huge deal!

Announce the roll out of a 3G network.
This is also a fairly easy prediction to make since it's been rumored that T-Mobile will do this for the last couple weeks. But that doesn't diminish the fact that T-Mobile really needs to come through on this to keep from getting dinged in the press for not having it (like what happened to the original iPhone). If T-Mobile doesn't do this I'll be pretty disappointed in them. Not because I necessarily need 3G speeds on a phone, but because I think it's virtually a strategic necessity at this point in the game.

[Update: 9/19/2008 T-Mobile has now announced that they are indeed rolling out a 3G network across 27 major metropolitan areas, which will include Seattle by mid October. I've also heard rumors that the phone won't actually be available for purchase until Oct. 17th, which would line up with this time line. One prediction in the bag!]

Offer contract free calling plans.
Now this one I haven't heard anyone talking about, but I think it would be a killer feature for T-Mobile's forward strategy. US cellular consumers are becoming more and more disgruntled with the two year contracts and high "opt-out" fees that carriers charge these days, and for what? So you can over-pay for a phone that you get slightly cheaper up front? The time for mandatory two year cellular contracts is coming to an end, and I believe the first carrier to take steps away from them will reap great rewards for it in the press.

I think T-Mobile would do best to offer the Android phone via two options: $199 with a two year contract, or full price ($599?) with out a contract. This would protect them on both fronts: It would compete directly with the iPhone's $199 price point, but also give forward thinking customers a stress-free option that doesn't tie you down. The irony is that I believe customers would stay with a carrier longer if they weren't obligated to do so ("if you love something set it free...").

And for Google's part:
Roll out a new, improved Grand Central service.
A few years ago Google bought a telephony company called Grand Central that basically allows you to consolidate your many phone numbers into a single, intelligently controlled contact point. You sign up for the service and receive a single, local phone number and then link it to ring multiple other phone numbers depending on who's calling you.

For instance, you might want your wife to be able to reach you at your desk, at your cell, or at home (if she's at work) so you can set her caller ID info to ring all those locations when she calls your Grand Central number. But you might want your Boss to only ring you at your office and your cell. Or you might have someone that you want to go directly to voicemail with out ever ringing any of your phones. Or maybe they can ring you at home, but only after 5pm... You can accomplish all of this with Grand Central.

It also serves as a central hub for your voicemail, and will email MP3 recordings of your voicemails to any email address you like, so you don't even have to call in to listen to them.

The major downfall of Grand Central so far has been the lack of support for SMS text messaging. This means that your "single number" doesn't work when someone wants to send you a quick text message.

Since Google bought Grand Central there's been very little written about it,and they haven't really developed it any further. Which is why I believe this could be the perfect time for Google to release an updated version of the service and create some synergy along with T-Mobile's announcements.

If they add SMS text messaging support, and possibly also offer a service that will translate your voicemails into text (so you don't even have to listen to them) this would be a killer program for Android integration. I see no reason why Google wouldn't want to take this opportunity to create a bigger splash for the Android pool.

In conclusion, the new Android-running Dream is going to be put on a very hot seat when it comes out as it will be compared ruthlessly to the iPhone. T-Mobile and Google need to do everything they can to wow the community with a stellar roll out. Frankly, although I think the new Dream will be a spectacular phone, I don't think it's going to be able to stand up to the already mature iPhone on hardware and software alone. I think they are going to need to think about the value added services that make it not just a cool phone, but an undeniably beneficial complete package.

T-Mobile is the 4th place provider in an industry that only has 4 big players in the US, and they won't have exclusive dibs on the Android OS for very long. I believe their best strategy will be to play on the negative feelings that many consumers have towards the other carriers and offer services that are uncharacteristically good for the customer. I hope they do and I hope it changes the industry for ever.

They have very little to loose, but everything to gain. Go get 'em, T-Mobile!